The role of precautionary and speculative demand in the global market for crude oil

Contemporary structural models of the global market for crude oil jointly specify precautionary and speculative demand shocks as a composite shock, named storage shock. We resolve this identification problem examine effects these distinct shocks, along with conventional supply on price oil. find that uncertainty driven is, average, primary driver real fluctuations have previously been associated shocks. Historically, had dynamics since 1970s.